Apparently the NATO summit came to the agreement that the ISAF forces will have left Afghanistan until 2014, in case the local forces can protect the Afghan people. So the main focus will be on educating and training the police and the army. Sounds like a great plan, Afghans can protect themselves and no foreign troops will be needed to sustain peace. No more soldiers dying and Afghanistan is a free and functioning democracy.

Obviously the NATO heads of state and their advisers are quite confidant, that they can achieve this goal in mere three years time. That’s interesting, because at the moment the ISAF can simply secure the status quo. In order to prepare the Afghan troops to take over the whole country, even if this means one province at a time, there will be need for additional personnel.

Even more importantly, there is a huge threat from Taliban fighters inside Pakistan. They are very well funded and equipped and probably even supported by former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which is the most important Pakistani intelligence agency, officials. Giving these people a timeframe, when they can count on the United States and their allies to leave Afghanistan is just devastating. They are already able to fight ISAF forces in multiple places across Afghanistan.

From now on, they can scale back their engagement in Afghanistan and accumulate money and manpower for the next three years. Once the NATO troops are gone, the Taliban can attack the Afghans with full force. Think about what the Taliban fighters, who already pose a huge threat to the ISAF forces, can do to a newly assembled Afghan army, which is still paid far less than the Taliban. It is highly unlikely that they will be able to win a war against the Taliban in three years, which they cannot win now, with help of other countries.

Another problem is the limited power of the President Hamid Karzai. He is hardly able to govern over Kabul and is constantly seeking support of warlords and other powerful players in the country. His government is also known for election fraud. Karzai is quite the security risk, once the US forces leave, know one know what he will do to maintain his leadership role. He even talked to Taliban leaders recently.

In my opinion, it is not about preparing the Afghan armed forces, because that will not happen any time soon. Instead the focus should be to eradicate the Taliban fighters in Pakistan once and for all. The alternative would be more instability in the region, probably another civil war in Afghanistan and maybe even a takeover by the Taliban.